The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal amid very warm ocean temperatures, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted, leading some scientists to warn of a summer of natural disasters caused by powerful storms.
The hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 this year, could have an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season, the federal weather agency said Thursday.
Reasons for the unusual season include near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Nia conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor the formation of tropical storms .
The strongest El Nio, a Pacific Ocean weather phenomenon in which the surface water temperature is warmest ever observed, is coming to an end, leading to La Nia conditions that increase the number and intensity of hurricanes.
Noaa predicts between 17 and 25 named storms in total, with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher, including four to seven major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
The Union of Concerned Scientists responded to Noah’s dire prediction.
As a climate scientist who tracks hurricane activity, I understand that the fun-filled summer season has increasingly become a time of fear for the dangers that lie ahead, said Astrid Caldas, a senior climate scientist for community resilience at UCS.
The people and places that find themselves in the path of a tropical storm can attest to its utter and lasting devastation, which often hits communities of color and low-income communities hardest.
Rising sea levels and severe hurricane seasons have battered coastal communities, leading to massive loss of life and property.
Caldas added: US coastal communities are tired of crossing their fingers and hoping that these record-breaking, epic-sized storms move away from their homes, dissipate or spin over the Atlantic. It is imperative that local, state, and federal policymakers and emergency planners help keep communities safe by prioritizing investments to make homes, businesses, and infrastructure in frontline communities climate-ready and prepared to ensure a quick and fair recovery in the event of a disaster.
Caldas also called for a policy to reduce the heat emissions that are driving the climate crisis.
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